Contents
1 – CEO Confidential – Monthly views from your CEO
2 – Final figures – Overview of this month’s performance
3 – Inside The Engine Room – A Quick Reflection from your COO
3 – Appointments – Welcome the new FD
5 – Beyond Numbers – First month as FD
6 – Trader’s Journal – Trading overview of this month and next
7 – Collaborative Ventures – Increasing AUM
8 – Deep Dive – Explore the Inner Workings of Novus Black
CEO Confidential
Behind The Boardroom
I’ve decided to inject a fresh perspective into our regular newsletter and make a few structural changes. It is of utmost importance to me that all our clients clearly understand who leads the company, and this personal touch resonates throughout every aspect of Novus Black.
With that in mind, welcome to your revamped monthly newsletter. Each of our senior team members at Novus Black now has a monthly voice, allowing them to share unique insights through their own articles. This platform enables them to discuss topics or share news relevant to their positions within Novus Black, allowing you to truly get to know them and once again proving how unique Novus Black is in the financal landscape.
Of course, never wanting to be one to be left out I’ve also dedicated a column to myself titled “CEO Confidential.” I think it will be nice to share the ups the downs and everything in between with my clients and give a greater insight into your CEO.
I trust you’ll enjoy this new format.
Final Figures
February’s Impressive 7.36% Rise
Novus Black proudly marks its 30th consecutive month of delivering consistent profits to our valued clients. Beyond achieving remarkable financial gains, we successfully concluded more legacy trades during this period. The significance of this achievement lies in our imminent closure of the VT Markets broker account in the next 8 weeks.
The closure of VT Markets is crucial due to its high SWAP charges and significant exposure to negative US trades. We’re bidding farewell to both the elevated risk and substantial costs associated with this account. Following the closure of VT Markets, our focus shifts to IC Markets. Here, we aim to wrap up additional legacy positions, eventually concluding our relationship with the broker. We plan to transfer all operations to our primary broker, IS Prime, and our secondary regulated broker, MEX. This strategic move promises lower costs and enhanced protection for the company.
Inside The Engine Room
A Quick Reflection
As we draw another month to a close, I find myself reflecting on the flurry of activity that has characterised this period. It has been a month marked by a series of productive meetings involving our senior team and both existing and potential strategic partners. These discussions have centred around a unified goal: to solidify the infrastructural bedrock of Novus Black and to perpetuate the enhancement of the services we provide to you, our esteemed clients. The journeys to and from London have afforded me a valuable opportunity for reflection on the past year. During these moments of quiet contemplation, I’ve been invigorated by the unwavering determination to propel Novus Black into becoming not just a formidable entity in the private fund arena but a name that resonates with excellence and trust far and wide.
Since our inception, Novus Black has navigated through a tapestry of challenges. Yet, it is with a sense of profound satisfaction that I note how these hurdles have been overwhelmingly outnumbered by our successes. The journey we’ve embarked upon has been anything but easy; however, the resilience and dedication of our team have been the linchpins of our progress. I am certain that I echo the sentiments of our entire team when I express the immense pride we take in our collective achievements. Each milestone we’ve reached and every obstacle we’ve overcome has been a testament to our shared commitment to excellence.
Moreover, our journey has been immensely enriched by the support and trust of you, our investors. Your belief in our vision and your steadfast support have been fundamental to our ability to forge ahead, even in the face of adversity. It is this partnership that stands as the cornerstone of Novus Black’s success and the driving force behind our ambition to continually raise the bar in everything we do.
Looking ahead, we remain committed to not just maintaining but elevating the standards of excellence we’ve set. The insights gained from our recent strategic discussions are already shaping our plans for the future. We are poised to introduce new initiatives that will further enhance our operational efficiency, broaden our investment horizon, and, most importantly, deliver superior value to our investors. Our vision for Novus Black is bold, and with your continued partnership, we are confident in our ability to achieve it.
New Appointments
We Have A New Financial Director
It is with great enthusiasm that we introduce James Brannan to the senior team at Novus Black as our Financial Director. James, with a wealth of experience from RBS and ABN Amro spanning over 30 years, steps into this role. He takes over from Dennis Mullany, who has gracefully retired after a distinguished financial career, contributing significantly to the success of Novus Black.
James is poised to continue the legacy left by Dennis, with a more focused approach to audits, security, and risk management. His leadership skills and ethical values align seamlessly with the Novus Black code of ethics. We are genuinely excited to witness the positive impact that this talented professional will bring to our fund. James has asked to have his own section within the news letter which we are calling Beyond Numbers.
Beyond Numbers
My First Month
Hello everyone, and welcome to my first article, titled “Beyond Numbers.” The name explains that your FD has responsibilities that extend beyond the purely financial realm. Instead, I am dedicated to shaping the company’s trajectory, ensuring that as we maintain our rapid growth, we concurrently manage risk levels effectively.
Joining Novus Black at the beginning of February, my inaugural month has swiftly passed, providing me with valuable insights into the challenges that a rapidly advancing business like Novus Black faces.
My interactions with Steve and George illuminated the paramount importance they place on their clients—an ethos that brought a breath of fresh air, particularly considering my background in the corporate sphere. Motivated by this, I aspire to introduce a new dimension for Novus Black clients. I intend to lead from the front, not from the sidelines and instill a structured approach to reporting and governance, with the aim is to ensure that this framework fosters opportunities rather than stifles them.
As the Financial Director, my primary responsibility is safeguarding capital and ensuring its deployment aligns with Novus Black’s multi-year strategy. My collaborative approach aligns seamlessly with the founders’ vision for more stable long-term growth, supported by the expertise required for the next stage.
In short, lot’s to do and I look forward to contributing to the Novus Black story and keeping investors informed each month, as we grow the business and maximise opportunities.
Trader’s Journal
February Trading
February proved to be another successful month for us, concluding with a remarkable gain of over 7%. During this period, our focus remained on both major and minor currency pairs, with the exception of JPY basket pairs.
Here are the key highlights for the currency markets in February:
BOE Monetary Policy and interest rates decision (BOE maintained its interest rate unchanged at 5.25%)
US Non-Farm Employment Change surpassed expectations
RBA interest rates decision (RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%)
US CPI and unemployment data, that confirmed a Dollar positive scenario
RBNZ interest rates decision (RBNZ maintained its interest rate unchanged at 5.50%)
These factors influenced market movements and trading strategies, contributing to the overall dynamics of the currency market in February.
Over the month, the Dollar Index has been trading between 102.90 and 104.98. The economic data releases, including reports as consumer prices, producer prices and employment have indicated that the U.S. economy remains robust despite a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. This has prompted investors to push back bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to later in the year.
The NASDAQ 100 Index hit new all-time highs in February but faced some selling towards the end, forming a potentially bearish opportunity. While the long-term outlook is positive, short-term profit-taking in the tech sector is evident.
The S&P 500 Index hit new all-time highs in February, signalling bullish momentum mostly due to the impressive US economy attracting foreign investment. The recent Advance US GDP print of 3.3% exceeded expectations.
March Look Ahead
February brought spontaneous market movements and opportunities despite it being a leap year with no significant price impacts. Looking ahead to March, also the financial year-end, we are optimistic and determined to build on February’s successes. Our focus remains on major and minor currency pairs, with thorough analysis and disciplined execution. As we embrace the challenges and opportunities ahead, we remain committed to achieving excellence in the forex market.
The most important items over the coming weeks will probably be the central bank policy meetings.
The Japanese Yen surged after inflation data surpassed expectations, despite a third consecutive month of core consumer inflation deceleration. However, recent gains were reversed due to a ‘hawkish’ reassessment of rate cut expectations in major economies like the U.S. and UK, posing challenges for the Yen until significant rate cuts occur globally.
The Bank of Japan anticipates policy normalisation by April, hinting at a potential rate hike to address interest differentials between the U.S. and Japan. Policy board member Hajime Takata’s remarks on exiting Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) indicate a shift towards rising wages and prices in Japan, diverging from deflationary trends.
Focus now shifts to annual wage negotiations in mid-March, as monetary policy divergence between the FOMC and the Bank of Japan may narrow interest rate differentials, potentially driving JPY pairs downward. With markets expecting a 10 basis point rate hike in April, the Yen’s near-term trajectory hinges on global economic shifts and central bank actions.
DXY
Recent reports on consumer prices, producer prices, and employment show that the U.S. economy is still strong even though interest rates have been high for a while. Because of this, investors are now thinking that the Federal Reserve might not cut rates until later in the year. In February, the US dollar index stayed steady around 103.8. This was because of good inflation data in January and because the market wasn’t sure if the Federal Reserve would cut rates in March or later.
GBP/USD
We believe that the Pound will remain strong in the medium term because the Bank of England won’t change its interest rates policy for a while. We anticipate they might only lower rates after the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve do so. Inflation is likely to reach the 2.0% target by April, but since service prices are still high, we believe it might go up again after that. It is expected the Bank will be ready to lower rates by June or August. This keeps the Bank of England in line with the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD pair is currently pausing in a consolidation phase, which may lead to a surge towards resistance followed by a confirmed bearish movement. In the short term, GBP/USD is anticipated to retreat, aiming for levels around 1.2550 – 1.2450.
AUD/USD
The Reserve Bank kept interest rates the same during its meeting in February. The market is still anticipating the first rate cut by the RBA to happen in September. However, our expectation is that the RBA will lower its cash rate by a larger margin than what the market currently predicts. The Dollar strength has influenced negatively the AUD but it should not last long, we are expecting AUD/USD to aim for 0.6675 in coming weeks.
EUR/USD
The Eurozone’s CPI release on March 1st, ahead of the ECB meeting on March 7th, is crucial. Despite cooling inflation, EUR/USD is expected to remain neutral. Recent movement breached 1.0800 after Germany’s lower-than- expected CPI in February. Attention now turns to EMU’s CPI on March 1st.
Short-term technical outlook: Immediate resistance lies at the weekly high of 1.0888, with potential for further gains to 1.0932 and 1.0998, before reaching 1.1000 and December 2023 peak of 1.1139. On the downside, a break below 1.0694 may target November 2023 low at 1.0516. As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.0830, the outlook remains negative. In the 4-hour chart, gradual upward movement persists, with resistance at 1.0888, followed by 1.0897 and 1.0932. Support levels include 1.0795, 1.0760, 1.0732, and 1.0694.
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD pair is currently at 0.6085, down by 0.25% in Thursday’s session ( 29th Feb).
Market expectations have shifted away from anticipating a Fed rate cut in March or May, instead forecasting the easing cycle to begin in June, which is pressuring the NZD/USD pair downward.
On the daily chart, NZD/USD has shifted from bullish to bearish territory, indicating a change in momentum from buyers to sellers. Following RBNZ’s dovish hold, if the market keeps delaying rate cuts of the Fed, more downside may be incoming.
USD/CAD
In the current market conditions, USD/CAD is consolidating near significant levels, primarily constrained below this week’s peak of 1.3606. Despite briefly touching 1.3540, the pair finds solid footing around the 1.3515 mark. The intraday stance on USD/CAD retains a bullish bias. However, breaching the minor support at 1.3538 could initially shift the intraday sentiment to neutral. Nevertheless, the short-term outlook remains optimistic, with bullish momentum likely to persist as long as the support at 1.3440 holds firm, even in the event of a temporary retreat.
Collaborative Ventures
Increasing AUM
Novus Black has been actively cultivating a partnership with a multi-manager seeder platform based in London. We are confident that this collaboration will significantly accelerate the growth of Novus Black’s Assets Under Management (AUM). With an unblemished 30-month track record, we’ve garnered attention from prominent entities, including the mentioned platform. Leveraging and fostering this association could potentially lead to a growth exceeding £50 million by year-end. However, in line with our approach to relationships, we proceed thoughtfully, ensuring that all decisions prioritise brand integrity and client well-being.
Deep Dive
Explore the Inner Workings of Novus Black
In our commitment to client satisfaction and sustained transparency, Novus Black is offering a unique opportunity for our clients to gain behind-the-scenes access to our headquarters. Through specially curated sessions called Deep Dives, we’re extending invitations to a select group to visit our Essex office.
During these Deep Dives, we will unveil and explain drawdown reduction plans, introduce new risk protocols, discuss expansion strategies, and provide a chance to meet more of our exceptional team. Additionally, participants can engage in an in-depth Q&A session, all while ensuring you’re well-fed and hydrated!
If you’re an investor in Novus Black and have ever wanted an insider’s look, be sure to secure your spot. We’re planning 8 sessions on the 20th and 21st of June. To reserve your place, please contact the CEO directly via WhatsApp. Each session will be limited to 6 investors, ensuring a personalised experience and allowing us to dedicate sufficient time to each investor.
While we would have preferred to start the Deep Dives sooner, our expansion plans and ongoing commitments have led us to kick off this insightful journey in June. We’re thrilled to embark on these Deep Dives and eagerly anticipate addressing any queries you may have during these sessions.
Remember, spaces are very limited, so if you are interested, please contact the CEO directly via WhatsApp.
