Greetings and best wishes for the New Year! We trust you all enjoyed a delightful holiday season filled with joy and celebration. As we step into 2024, our team is filled with optimism and enthusiasm, looking forward to the potential and possibilities that this year holds. It’s a time for us to reflect on the successes of the past year and to envision the exciting journey that lies ahead if our plans for 2024 unfold as strategically designed, building upon our achievements in 2023.
We are excited to share that we closed December, and hence the year 2023, on a high note with an impressive 6.8% gain. Our Christmas announcement also highlighted another cause for celebration: our managed assets have now exceeded the notable milestone of $10 million. This accomplishment sets us up for a strong and prosperous start in 2024.
In this update, we will delve into the market analysis for December, preview our expectations for the coming month, and offer insights into our strategies for mitigating drawdowns and driving future growth. In the spirit of the holiday season, we will also share updates on our charitable initiatives and a recap of our Christmas events.
Christmas Event Thanks
A heartfelt thank you goes out to all who participated in our festive celebrations this season. Whether you attended the elegant Savoy Christmas Gala or the more relaxed and spirited Noel Savaloy, your presence contributed immensely to the success of these events. Both gatherings were nothing short of exceptional, perfectly capturing the essence of what Novus Black stands for – a blend of sophistication, joy, and community.
The Savoy Christmas Gala, with its grandeur and elegance, provided an unforgettable experience. Similarly, the Noel Savaloy offered a delightful contrast, showcasing a more informal yet equally festive atmosphere. We believe these events were not just about celebration but also about forging connections. It was heartening to see so many of you enjoying the festivities, and perhaps, forming new friendships with like-minded individuals.
Looking ahead, we are excited about the prospect of hosting more events throughout the year. These gatherings are a crucial part of our community, offering opportunities to connect, unwind, and celebrate our collective achievements. We will keep you updated on upcoming events and look forward to seeing you there. Once again, thank you for making our Christmas events a tremendous success and a source of great memories.
Christmas Charity & Community
This festive season, our commitment to giving back to the community was at the forefront of our endeavours, and we organised a special initiative to spread joy among those in need. We purchased a substantial collection of gifts and personally delivered them to Great Ormond Street Hospital. This gesture was aimed at providing a moment of joyous escape for the children enduring hardships during the Christmas season. It was also a way to uplift the spirits of their parents, who tirelessly support their little ones through challenging times.
Moreover, our investors have been actively involved in various philanthropic activities, demonstrating an admirable dedication to making a positive impact. A notable example is Cliff from HAFGB, whose extraordinary efforts led to a significant contribution to Ukraine. His initiative, involving the delivery of Christmas presents to Ukraine, was carried out by a team of incredibly brave and dedicated volunteers. This act of kindness brought festive cheer to many during a time of great need.
We extend our heartfelt congratulations and gratitude to everyone who participated in or contributed to charity drives this Christmas. Your efforts and generosity have not only made a tangible difference in the lives of many but have also embodied the true spirit of the holiday season – one of giving, compassion, and community. Your actions are a reminder of the powerful impact we can make when we come together for a common cause.
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December Overview
In December, our focus was predominantly on various currency pairs, and we approached trading with caution due to the market’s abnormal volatility during the holiday period. The key currency market highlights for December included:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintaining its interest rate at 4.35%, which was in line with expectations.
- The Bank of Canada (BOC) also kept its interest rate steady at 5.00%, as anticipated by the market.
- The Federal Reserve (FED) left its interest rate unchanged at 5.50%, aligning with market expectations.
- The Bank of England’s monetary policy decision rate stayed at 5.25%, as forecasted.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its interest rate steady at 4.50%, in line with market expectations.
During this period, banks in developed markets were seen focusing on maintaining steady rates while planning and strategising for potential rate cuts in 2024. The Nasdaq (US100), a tech-heavy index that favours lower interest rates, reached all-time highs following recent signals of a dovish pivot by the Fed. However, the index ended December at heavily overbought levels after rallying nearly 2% in two months, suggesting the possibility of an imminent corrective reaction.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in five months, dropping below 100.65. Concurrently, US yields continued to trend lower as markets anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming year. Meanwhile, equity prices remained near recent highs. This combination continued to exert pressure on the US Dollar, particularly in holiday-thinned trading, where the dollar saw some resistance and a pushback lower from the 13th of December onwards.
This market behaviour was also influenced by concerns over a potential economic recession and ongoing conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Red Sea. These factors contributed to pushing gold prices high, reaching the 2088 zone.
The last week of the month did not see any significant reports released, and it is expected that the market’s regular volatility will resume from the 8th of January, after the holiday period concludes.
January Trading Forecast
The US Dollar Index experienced a new six-month low at 100.60 on Thursday but regained some ground on Friday, ending the week at 101.20. The EURUSD briefly reached a six-month high at 1.1138 before closing lower at 1.1041, while USDJPY fell to fresh six-month lows at 140.24 on Thursday, but rebounded to close at 140.9.
As the final trading days of 2023 saw some choppy action, financial markets entered the new year with relative calm. Key data from the US, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, November JOLTS Job Openings, and FOMC Minutes, are expected to increase volatility on Wednesday afternoon.
During the Asian trading hours, data from China indicated a slight improvement in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December, rising to 50.8 from 50.7, surpassing the market expectation of 50.4. US stock index futures showed mixed performance in the European morning.
The EUR/USD, after hitting a multi-month high of 1.1140 in the last week of 2023, underwent a correction, declining towards 1.0955 as the New Year approached. Early on Tuesday, the pair traded marginally lower, just below 1.0955.
GBP/USD lost momentum, falling below 1.2640 after failing to break above 1.2820 in the previous week. The pair fluctuated around a channel above 1.2630 during Tuesday’s European session.
USD/JPY, which fell nearly 5% in December, touched its lowest level since July, falling below 140.25 ahead of the New Year holiday. However, it began to recover early on Tuesday, last seen trading above 142.00.
Gold entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways at around $2,060 in the latter half of the previous week. XAU/USD began 2024 with a slight rise, fluctuating from 2078 to 2062, and was last seen trading near 2066.
January’s major economic news expected to influence market volatility includes the US unemployment data, CPI reports from developed markets, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook report, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
